“In a really perfect world, we might have the ability to belief the Turkish authorities,” stated Onur Can Varoğlu. “However we'd like to verify the votes being counted in Lithuania find yourself in Ankara.”
“Something can occur if we do not watch.”
The 27-year-old is a part of a crew of impartial volunteers monitoring the vote of Turkish nationals in Lithuania, forward of Turkey’s nationwide elections on 14 Might.
He has volunteered in practically eight elections, however these within the small Baltic nation are particular as it's the first time ballots have been arrange right here. Earlier than, they needed to journey to the Turkish border to forged their vote.
Arrested through the Gezi Park protests of 2013, Varoğlu stated it was very important to guard the integrity of Turkey's election, believing democratic freedoms had been eroded again dwelling.
“We're fairly protecting of our vote,” he instructed Euronews. “In Turkey, it is rather tough to protest and we noticed how the Center East went down after the Arab Spring actions.”
“We do not have hope for an enormous social motion. Our solely probability for change is on the poll field.”
Turks have been given the chance to vote in Lithuania for the primary time as their quantity has risen considerably in recent times, with practically 2,000 now within the nation.
However with the arrival of extra Turkish individuals to the Baltic nation, got here the arrival of their political rivalries too.
In Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, there are reportedly devoted mosques and cultural centres for supporters of Erdoğan and people of the assorted opposition forces, resembling Kurds and Gülenists, a political group as soon as allied with the Turkish president.
“These political tensions really play out extra overseas as a result of individuals are freer to precise their opinions and do activism,” says Varoğlu. “In Turkey, in case you say or do something too political you may find yourself in jail.”
Erdoğan has more and more clamped down on dissent, bringing in controversial legal guidelines that criminalise "insulting the president" and "disinformation" on social media.
These political rivalries could possibly be traced again to the household, Varoğlu continued. “It does not matter in case you come to Europe. In case you are from a nationalist, Islamist background or a extra pro-European immigrant one, you deliver these values with you.”
“Turkish politics is like soccer, you might be born along with your crew and can help it it doesn't matter what.”
Why are Turkish individuals in Lithuania?
Over the previous decade, Turkey’s economic system has hit the rocks, with hundreds of thousands of Turks pushed to the brink by skyrocketing inflation and a collapsing forex.
In September 2021, one US greenback was price 8 Turkish lira. Immediately it's 19.5.
These financial headwinds have profoundly impacted which Turks to migrate and the place they go.
“The one individuals who keep in Turkey are these benefiting from the regime. In case you are keen to join their agenda and help the social gathering, you'll have a vivid future. In case you do not need to sacrifice your values to get an excellent job, then you need to depart,” stated Varoğlu.
“It is a provided that that is the one strategy to have a vivid future.”
Turkish immigrants in Lithuania are typically youthful, college educated and extra supportive of the opposition, in comparison with the extra established Turkish communities in different elements of mainland Europe. Nevertheless, many nonetheless do again Erdoğan.
“Most Turks in hotspots Germany went as visitor staff after World Battle Two. There was no plan to combine them, in order that they constructed their very own communities and are caught in a Turkish fantasy,” stated Varoğlu, suggesting this was one cause why diaspora there tended to help Erdoğan.
“However newer generations of immigrants in locations like Lithuania will not be like that. They're extra open and European.”
Within the 2018 elections, 87% (2.63 million) of the Turkish voters registered overseas have been residents of 19 EU Member States, the UK, Norway or Switzerland. Nearly half of all expat voters in 2018 (47%) have been residing in Germany, which strongly supported Erdoğan within the final presidential election
One in every of these youthful Turks who will play a pivotal function within the election is Merve Yılmaz.
The 20-something, who forged her vote on the Turkish embassy on Sunday, is learning a grasp’s at one in every of Lithuania’s most prestigious universities.
For Yılmaz, the vote could not be extra vital. Not solely was it her first time voting, she has additionally solely ever identified Erdoğan, and his AKP social gathering, ruling over Turkey since 2001.
And he or she is just not alone. 5 million younger individuals will vote in Turkish elections for the primary time this time round, with their help seen as essential for deciding who will win.
Along with his stripped-down social media movies, Erdoğan’s rival and chief of an opposition bloc, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has attracted many younger voters anticipating change. However Erdoğan retains sturdy help, particularly amongst conservative spiritual voters.
“To me, it is rather clear who must be the subsequent chief,” stated Yılmaz. “He [Kılıçdaroğlu] is the one one who we are able to belief to assist raise our nation from the horrible scenario it's in now.”
“We would like change for a greater future.”
‘Dictators do not retire’
Erdoğan is going through the most important risk to his two-decade rule but.
His help has taken a battering, with critics accusing him of steering the nation in direction of authoritarianism, ruining the economic system and mishandling the response to a devastating earthquake in February that killed greater than 50,000 individuals.
In his defence, the 69-year-old has referred to as the earthquake an act of god, sustaining it's unimaginable to arrange for such a catastrophic pure catastrophe on this scale.
Polls predict a neck-and-neck race between Erdoğan and his opponent, with the upcoming vote pitched as a seismic battle over Turkey’s future.
There have been widespread fears Erdoğan couldn't play pretty, whereas his supporters have threatened to reject the vote if he loses.
“We've a whole lot of insecurity in direction of elections being rigged,” stated Varoğlu. “We had some dangerous experiences prior to now, however we weren't as effectively organised again then.”
After a 2017 referendum on whether or not to overtake Turkey’s democracy and set up an govt presidency for Erdoğan - which he received - the opposition cried foul after guidelines have been modified on the final minute to permit 2.5 million unstamped ballots to be included within the vote.
Nevertheless, Varoğlu was extra positive about what was at stake.
“Every candidate is promising two very totally different futures for Turkey. One in every of them is promising extra restrictions on human rights, extra wild nationalism and capitalism. The opposite is promising improved human rights and a return to European norms.”
“It is Turkey, something can occur.”