Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will journey to Madrid on Tuesday as a part of a visit that was meant to spur new EU-Brazil investments however might now deal with mending relations.
Lula sparked controversy final week after saying each Ukraine and Russia determined to go to battle and accusing the US and Europe of contributing to the battle by supplying weapons.
The remarks led to an accusation from Washington that Lula was "parroting" Chinese language and Russian propaganda.
The go to to Spain, the place Lula will meet with the prime minister, is the second leg of Lula's first journey to Europe since beating far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in elections final 12 months, a changeover which EU leaders had hoped would convey Brazil nearer to the West.
Diplomatic headache for Spain?
Lula kicked off his European tour in Lisbon the place he met with Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa however the Brazilian president's appearances had been overshadowed by his remarks the earlier week.
The Brazilian president later clarified his view in Portugal, saying that Russia had certainly invaded Ukraine and that he needs to see peace: "This battle should not have began, Russia should not have invaded but it surely did. The very fact is that it occurred. So as an alternative of selecting sides, I need to select a 3rd manner, the development of peace."
For Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose nation takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in July, one of many said priorities of the rotating presidency might be strengthening the EU’s political and financial ties with Latin America.
However it's a job which hasn't been made simpler by the current international coverage choices of the continent’s largest nation, Brazil.
Spain is an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine with the nation’s defence minister revealing it had shipped its first six Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine final week.
The Elcano Royal Institute stated final month that: “Based mostly on the out there knowledge, if we measure effort when it comes to the price of the army, financial and humanitarian help supplied to Ukraine to this point (which amounted to 0.4% of Spanish GDP in 2022) and examine it to that of neighbouring international locations, in relative phrases Spain’s contribution is larger than that of France, Italy or the UK”.
Concentrate on deepening financial ties
However it's unlikely that Spain and Brazil's divisions over Ukraine will play a central position within the bilateral assembly, in line with José Javier Olivas Osuna of UNED College.
In addition to declaring that Lula has partly walked again his feedback, Olivas highlights that: “Sánchez has adopted, for the reason that starting of his mandate, a considerably conciliatory stance in his international coverage."
"The nearer ties he's creating with Morocco and the cordial encounter he not too long ago had with Giorgia Meloni in Italy, regardless of their robust political discrepancies are examples of this non-confrontational method," Olivas stated.
Olivas added that some members of Sanchez's authorities, comparable to Yolanda Díaz, repeatedly expressed their admiration for the Brazilian president. So any direct criticism of Lula might create unrest throughout the already fragile stability of his authorities.
As a substitute, Sánchez will doubtless attempt to focus the go to on deepening financial ties between the 2 international locations.
Spain is a vital participant in Brazil’s financial system and was the 4th largest international direct investor within the nation in 2019. It can also be a long-time proponent of the stalled EU-Mercosur commerce deal which might lower tariffs for commerce between the one market and South American international locations.
Negotiations on the deal began again in 2000 and had been accomplished in 2019 however have been held up by EU international locations over environmental and home political worries.
Getting the deal over the end line would align with Spain’s push to determine nearer relations between the 2 buying and selling blocs. A flurry of current exercise means that an settlement could also be nearer than ever, which is another excuse we're unlikely to see any sharp rebukes by Madrid.
Susanne Kathe Ingrid Gratius, from the political science and worldwide relations division at UAM College, says the deal makes geopolitical sense for the EU.
"The EU ought to signal this settlement to proceed to be current in additional than half of the area that China, Brazil's principal export market, is now economically conquering.
"The EU is just Latin America's fourth largest buying and selling accomplice, though a key investor, it ought to attempt to get well its place forward of China and the US. The EU additionally shares many international pursuits with Brazil: local weather change, worldwide conflicts, the WTO, the desire for multilateralism and significantly the strengthening of the United Nations," she stated.
A multi-polar worldview
Brazil’s refusal to affix in with sanctions in opposition to Russia or ship arms to Ukraine aligns with its longstanding international coverage place of neutrality.
The nation has instructed that a group of non-aligned international locations might certainly lead peace talks.
Carlos Malamud, a senior analyst for Latin America on the Elcano Royal Institute says that nationalism in international coverage might be the rationale for Lula’s current feedback.
“Brazilian diplomacy may be very nationalistic, it's pleased with the autonomy of Brazil. He [Lula] thinks of himself as an important international participant, not a regional participant, however a world participant. On this manner, they attempt to stress the Brazilian place and it was one of many causes for the magnitude of Lula’s declarations final week," Malamud stated.
Different elements, like the truth that Brazil imports over 80% of its fertilisers, 1 / 4 of which come from Russia, are additionally necessary influences on Brazilian diplomacy.