On this "Face the Nation" broadcast moderated by Main Garrett:
- Anthony Salvanto, CBS Information director of election and surveys
- Kari Lake, Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arizona
- Kate Hobbs, Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Arizona
- Peter Baker, Susan Glasser, Nikole Killion, Scott MacFarlane
- Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Financial Adviser
Click on right here to browse full transcripts of "Face the Nation."
MAJOR GARRETT: I am Main Garrett.
And this week on Face the Nation, we are going to dive into some of the intently watched governor's races within the nation and look at issues dealing with America at house and overseas.
We now have new CBS polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. And, in back-to- again appearances, we are going to hear from Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs, as they're operating lifeless even to be Arizona's subsequent governor. Our political panel will observe this distinctive Arizona occasion and the week's information.
Then: Monetary markets stay jumpy, and recession anxieties obtained extra gas after the OPEC cartel minimize oil manufacturing. We'll test in with prime economist Mohamed El-Erian in regards to the street forward.
Lastly, a key bridge linking the Crimean Peninsula with Russia is destroyed. Ukrainians have fun, whereas Russia fumes. What are Vladimir Putin's choices? May one be battlefield nuclear weapons? We may have a report from the area.
It is all simply forward on Face the Nation.
Good morning. Welcome to Face the Nation. Margaret Brennan is off.
We now have new CBS Battleground Tracker polls from a number of key states. In Michigan, Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer is main her Republican challenger, Tudor Dixon, 53 % to 47 %.
In Wisconsin, we're monitoring two statewide races. The governor's race between Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and his Republican challenger, businessman Tim Michels, is deadlocked, with each candidates at 50 %. Within the Senate race, incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson is polling at 50 % in opposition to his Democratic rival, Mandela Barnes, who's at 49 %.
We additionally realized final week in Arizona incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is narrowly forward of his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, 51 % to 48 %.
Becoming a member of us now to debate all of that is CBS Information elections and surveys director Anthony Salvanto.
Anthony, good morning. Catch us up on the dynamics of those Senate races.
ANTHONY SALVANTO: Good morning, Main.
So, Wisconsin and Arizona are two Senate races out of, I feel, 5 that can in the end decide management the chamber. So, they're each shut for causes which might be throughout all of those races. And that's, it is the economic system in opposition to abortion, which is to say, Democrats are successful voters who're involved about abortion.
That is occurring in Wisconsin. Mandela Barnes is getting virtually three- quarters of those that say it is crucial. After which the economic system. Republicans are successful voters who say the economic system is most vital, going to punish the occasion in energy. And that is the Democrats. He is getting virtually two-thirds of them.
Now, having mentioned that, every occasion is kind of jockeying to attempt to add one other set of points to that listing. And on the Republican aspect, a kind of is crime. So, they're operating assault adverts. They're making an attempt to tie Democrats to this unpopular place -- and it's unpopular in Wisconsin -- of defunding the police.
And when voters understand, in the event that they understand that Barnes helps defunding the police -- once more, that is their notion -- then they don't seem to be voting for him. And he is behind Johnson on the thought of, will your -- will their insurance policies maintain you protected?
Now, Democrats, for his or her half, want to add this situation of election integrity, threats to democracy after the makes an attempt to overturn 2020.
MAJOR GARRETT: Beneath that banner of threats to democracy, some Republicans received their primaries by denying or questioning the 2020 election.
To what diploma is that place both being embraced or backed away from or having an impact on the overall elections they discover themselves in now?
ANTHONY SALVANTO: Nicely, look, for Republicans, it was virtually a litmus check of their primaries. And so they're nonetheless supporting their candidates no matter their stance.
There's just a little little bit of proof that the place of making an attempt to overturn 2020 hurts Republicans on this sense, in case you have a look at independents who consider that Ron Johnson -- once more, their notion -- was making an attempt to overturn the election, they are not voting for him.
And the best way it additionally connects is on candidate qualities. Check out Arizona. A majority of individuals say that they'd desire their elected officers say that Joe Biden received, which he did. Now, if you have a look at voters who say that they suppose that the candidates are -- or a Republican candidate is speaking about 2020, they're extra prone to label that candidate as excessive, versus mainstream.
And that goes in direction of candidate qualities, the place Democrats have tended to have a bonus. These are the dynamics all at work right here.
MAJOR GARRETT: Anthony Salvanto, thanks very a lot.
ANTHONY SALVANTO: Thanks.
MAJOR GARRETT: Now to the race for governor of Arizona.
Our newest ballot exhibits Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake tied at 49 %. The 2 candidates haven't scheduled a debate, however they're right here to reply our questions. Every candidate may have about eight-and-a- half minutes.
We intend to cowl the identical points with every candidate, points recognized by our personal polling as of main concern to Arizona voters. Our potential to cowl this floor, in fact, will probably be influenced in no small measure by the size of the candidates' solutions, first Republican Kari Lake, who joins us from Phoenix.
Good morning, and welcome to Face the Nation.
KARI LAKE (R-Arizona Gubernatorial Candidate): Good morning, Main. Thanks a lot for having me on.
Simply to make clear, I've agreed to any and all debates, and I will probably be participating in a single with out my opponent subsequent week, on the twelfth. I might like it if she would present up, as a result of I feel there's lots of vital points that the folks of Arizona want to listen to about.
MAJOR GARRETT: We'll get to that, I promise.
Your Web page is detailed and particular on the query of immigration and border safety. You name, if elected as governor, for Arizona to hitch different states to type what you name a compact to hold out border safety separate from the federal authorities, together with arrest and detention.
For the good thing about Arizona voters, are you able to clarify the authorized and sensible software of this strategy?
KARI LAKE: Nicely, in fact, if the Structure, that Article 4, Part 4 requires the federal authorities to guard us from invasion.
And underneath Joe Biden's lack of management, we simply aren't seeing that. And now we have an invasion at our border. The cartels, these narco terrorist teams have operational management. And so they're utilizing Arizona to smuggle folks, to visitors youngsters, and to visitors probably the most harmful drug we have ever seen, fentanyl.
And so we'll invoke our Article 1, Part 10, mainly, authority to maintain our personal border and defend our personal border. It is proper there in black and white within the Structure. And we meet all three standards. We now have an invasion, our persons are in imminent hazard, and time is of the essence. There isn't any time for delay.
So we'll produce other states supply assist. I already have a pair different governors who're keen to assist out. And I do know that in case you ask folks in different states that aren't border states, they deem this disaster on the border as one of many prime points dealing with our nation...
MAJOR GARRETT: Would Arizona...
KARI LAKE: ... with so many younger folks dying of fentanyl poisoning proper now.
MAJOR GARRETT: Would Arizona go it alone if it did not get this compact settlement with different states?
KARI LAKE: Sure, we are going to.
However I consider we are going to get assist. I've already talked to another governors. And so they're -- they're vowing to assist us out wherever they'll, as a result of they notice that what comes into Arizona, fentanyl, folks coming right here illegally, youngsters being trafficked, would not keep in Arizona. It goes to all 50 states.
And I simply spoke final week to a mom and father who misplaced their son. And it is simply tragic. We're shedding extra folks to fentanyl in Arizona since Joe Biden took workplace than we misplaced in 9/11 or throughout COVID.
MAJOR GARRETT: If, as there would probably be, federal challenges have been introduced, would you, as governor, await for these federal challenges to this state compact be resolved? And would you respect them in the event that they have been to any means impinge upon or prohibit or nullify the state compact strategy?
KARI LAKE: We'll -- we are going to problem the federal authorities, if they'll problem us. I feel now we have the correct to do that.
And we may have attorneys file lawsuits as effectively. However we're not going to again down and let our folks be overrun with medicine, watch our kids die. We had a 16-year-old die right here within the metro space final week from a fentanyl overdose. We will not maintain having this occur. We're shedding our younger era.
So I hope that Joe Biden would not battle us, as a result of then it might actually appear to be he's on the aspect of the cartels. And I do not suppose he desires the folks to suppose that.
MAJOR GARRETT: Your Web page additionally says that Washington D.C. incentivizes unlawful immigration to fulfill -- quote -- "huge enterprise lust for reasonable labor."
Does that huge enterprise lust reside in Arizona in any respect?
KARI LAKE: I feel it resides all over the place.
And we noticed it with Nancy Pelosi final week. I imply, it was probably the most racist factor, I feel, I've heard her say, though she's mentioned fairly just a few issues which might be offensive. She mentioned these folks coming in illegally ought to go decide fruit within the South. I imply, I could not consider my ears, Main, after I heard that.
We need to guarantee that our center class and our working class are wholesome. The Democrats used to care about our working class. And now they seem that they do not. They need to see 5 million folks are available. These 5 million folks, the place are they staying? They are not staying on the streets.
It is Americans who're homeless. And so they're taking jobs from hardworking Arizonans. And we'll begin placing Arizona first and defending our residents on this state.
MAJOR GARRETT: Nominee Lake, our polling exhibits that abortion is a vital situation to Arizona vote voters. You might have been quoted as saying Arizona will probably be a state "the place we is not going to be taking the lives of our unborn anymore."
You've got additionally extra lately been quoted as saying that, in Arizona abortion, ought to be uncommon and authorized. Are these statements constant?
KARI LAKE: I -- I used to be in an interview after I mentioned that, and I used to be -- I used to be telling the interviewer that, when abortion was first introduced, they mentioned it ought to be -- it ought to be uncommon, protected and authorized.
And now it is grow to be something however uncommon. In Katie Hobbs' world -- and you may ask her about this -- I perceive she's developing subsequent -- they're for abortion proper up till start. If you're within the hospital in labor, the abortionists are for providing you with an abortion, in case you want one.
MAJOR GARRETT: What are you for?
KARI LAKE: We have to draw the road. We have to draw the road someplace.
I'm going to be the manager of the state, the chief govt officer, and I'll comply with the legislation. The legislation proper now because it stands is Governor Ducey's legislation at 15 weeks, so we'll comply with the legislation. Pay attention, I am a girl.
MAJOR GARRETT: Would you search to limit abortions past -- nearer than 15 weeks?
KARI LAKE: Could I end?
MAJOR GARRETT: Certain.
KARI LAKE: I'm -- I am a girl. I am a mom. I am all for girls's well being care.
I come from a big household. Seven sisters, I've. In fact I need girls's well being care. This has moved past well being care. We're not giving girls selections. I am for giving girls true selections. And once they stroll into an abortion middle, they're solely given one alternative.
And so they're not instructed that you've got the selection to maintain your child, and we may also help, and here is how, or we may also help you discover a loving household who will undertake your child. I need to give girls true selections. I'll uphold the legislation, no matter that legislation is.
And I need to see to it that we save extra lives. Proper now, the Democrats have began pushing so removed from that uncommon however protected to something goes, as much as 9 months of being pregnant, after start. Katie Hobbs, my opponent, really has voted for -- and also you have a look at her voting report -- permitting a child who survives an abortion, that the hospital would refuse medical care and permit the child to die on a chilly steel tray.
She voted for that.
MAJOR GARRETT: We'll take that up with Katie Hobbs, I assure you.
This week, nominee Lake, a 64-year-old Iowa man was arrested and charged for threatening to lynch Maricopa County Supervisor Clint Hickman. In response, Hickman mentioned: "folks in positions of affect and management in Arizona are silent. How will you be silent?"
Do you've got a reply from Mr. Hickman? And would you assist and do you assist federal and state prosecution of anybody who threatens the lives of an election employee?
KARI LAKE: I feel that anybody who threatens anybody's lives ought to be detained and questioned. I am not for violence in any means.
And I ought to remind you that, throughout COVID, when lots of Individuals have been confronted with not having the ability to use their free speech to talk out in opposition to what was occurring, they have been shedding their jobs, they have been shedding their companies, they have been being pressured to get pictures that they did not need, folks have been being bullied and -- and attacked and in addition threatened throughout that point.
I feel we have to get again to the place now we have free speech, and we should not be threatening folks. And I hope that they arrest that man and detain him.
MAJOR GARRETT: Earlier this week, Blake Masters, as , Republican nominee for the Senate, mentioned he has not seen proof of vote-counting issues or election outcomes that may have modified the end result of the 2020 presidential election.
He additionally mentioned President Biden is the authentic president. Do you agree?
KARI LAKE: I feel now we have main issues in our election system. And we - - and it goes again to 2000.
We had Democrats saying the 2000 election wasn't truthful. They have been complaining the 2004 election wasn't truthful. 2016, Kamala Harris spoke out and mentioned that the digital voting machines have been hacked in entrance of her eyes. And no one known as them election deniers.
And now, impulsively, in 2020, Garrett, we do not have free speech anymore. We will not converse out in opposition to our personal elections. All I am asking for is the power to talk out. When our authorities does one thing unsuitable, we should always have the ability to converse out in opposition to it.
I feel now we have main...
MAJOR GARRETT: Do you agree with the assertion that Blake Masters made?
KARI LAKE: I -- I am not going to tackle what Blake mentioned. I will tackle what I mentioned.
And what I say is, now we have issues in our election. They have not been solved in 2016. They weren't solved in '18. Only a month or two in the past, throughout our main election -- and I am certain your voters -- your viewers do not even know this -- Katie Hobbs' workplace suggested the counties on what number of ballots to print. This was two months in the past.
MAJOR GARRETT: Proper. Nominee Lake...
KARI LAKE: And so they underprinted ballots in our greatest county, and so they ran out of Republican-only ballots one hour into voting.
MAJOR GARRETT: Nominee Lake...
KARI LAKE: We now have to revive honesty to our elections. We should restore honesty.
MAJOR GARRETT: In equity -- in equity and in timing for each you and Katie Hobbs, now we have to finish it there. Thanks very a lot for being with us on Face the Nation.
Face the Nation will again in only one minute. Stick with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MAJOR GARRETT: Now to Katie Hobbs. She is the Democratic nominee for governor, and she or he's additionally in Phoenix this morning.
Secretary Hobbs, good morning. Welcome to Face the Nation.
So, your opponent mentioned you do not need to debate. I want to ask you, are there any circumstances underneath which you'd conform to debate Kari Lake, so the voters of Arizona may hear from the 2 of you aspect by aspect and in actual time?
KATIE HOBBS (D-Arizona Secretary of State and Gubernatorial Candidate): Look, what I've been centered on is alternatives like this, the place they'll see us again to again, and listen to immediately from us in regards to the points which might be vital to Arizonans and the way we might govern, with out a circus like she created throughout the GOP Republican main.
I've no want to be part of -- of the spectacle that she's trying to create, as a result of that does not do any service to the voters of Arizona to listen to from us, the place we stand on the problems and the way we might govern.
MAJOR GARRETT: So, generally, voters study issues from moments of duress or problem or circus. Do not you suppose you are sturdy sufficient to deal with any form of circus Kari Lake may current, if, in truth, she have been to current one? Do not the voters of Arizona should see that actual?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: I feel the voters of Arizona have had an opportunity to see how I work underneath disaster all through my management throughout the 2020 election as secretary of state, after we needed to fight a number of election challenges from former President Trump and his band of election deniers, together with my opponent, Kari Lake.
MAJOR GARRETT: So I need to ask you about immigration. We had a protracted dialog with Kari Lake about that.
Final night time, you tweeted: "Arizona bears the brunt of the failures of US immigration insurance policies."
Now, by our depend, that's your second tweet in a month about immigration. Who particularly is answerable for this failure? And why solely now did you determine to share that sentiment together with your Twitter followers?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: Oh, that is actually not the primary time that I've spoken out about immigration on this marketing campaign.
We're a border state, and immigration as it's a crucial situation to Arizona border -- voters. And, as a border state, now we have borne the brunt of many years of inaction in Washington from each events to deal with each border safety and complete immigration reform.
And -- and we'd like the federal authorities to step up. However what I need to be actually clear about is that my opponent's positions on this situation are nothing however empty rhetoric. She's not providing actual options. When she talked about invoking the constitutional authority of the state, she's speaking about declaring an invasion at our Southern border.
That might do completely nothing to extend border safety, however it might convey untold ranges of chaos into our state. It is not an actual answer. I've a border safety plan that is been endorsed by two border sheriffs as a result of they know that it is going to focus actual options and produce significant aid and assist them make their communities safer.
MAJOR GARRETT: As a sensible matter, have been Arizonans safer underneath immigration insurance policies of the current administration or the one simply earlier than it?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: Look, we have had a -- a fairly unhealthy immigration coverage for many years. We have to get complete immigration reform carried out. And it is -- each events in Congress have been dragging their ft to -- to get this carried out.
MAJOR GARRETT: However, if you say there's a failure of present immigration coverage, that is a Biden administration failure, is it not, by definition?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: Look, Trump centered his complete immigration coverage round ending the wall. And. it is not carried out.
And -- however Biden does must step up immigration and border safety, completely. Arizona is bearing the brunt of -- of unlawful drug trafficking, gun trafficking and smuggling. And we do want extra border safety. It is not going to get carried out by declaring an invasion on the border or dismantling the FBI, which is one other factor that my opponent has known as for.
MAJOR GARRETT: On the query of abortion, your opponent described you as one thing of an extremist. These are her phrases, not ours.
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: Sure.
MAJOR GARRETT: Do you assist the present 15-week ban in Arizona? Or would you search -- search a distinct strategy? And is there per week restrict totally different than 15 weeks you might be in favor of? And, in that case, why?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: I do not assist the 15-week ban.
However let me simply say that Kari Lake is -- is completely misconstruing my place on this situation. You and I each know that late-term abortion is extraordinarily uncommon. And if it is being talked about, it is as a result of one thing has gone extremely unsuitable in a being pregnant.
A physician's not going to carry out an abortion late in a being pregnant simply because any person determined they need one. That's ridiculous. And he or she's saying this to distract from her extremely excessive place, which has -- she's gone on the report saying she helps Arizona's full abortion ban that may -- that's within the courts proper now being determined if that would be the legislation of Arizona or not.
She's known as it a fantastic legislation. She's known as individuals who search abortion murderers and executioners. And underneath a Kari Lake administration, we might have government-mandated pressured births that danger girls's lives.
And her place is the one which -- that is excessive. It is out of contact the place -- with the place the vast majority of Arizonans are, who assist entry to protected and authorized abortion. And, underneath her administration, girls wouldn't be protected.
MAJOR GARRETT: What would the Hobbs administration's week restrict be for abortion entry? If it is not 15 weeks, what's it?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: Look, abortion is a really private resolution that belongs between a girl and her physician.
The federal government and politicians do not belong in that call. We have to let docs carry out the care that they're educated and take an oath to -- to carry out.
MAJOR GARRETT: So, if an Arizona voter have been to conclude out of your earlier reply that you don't favor any particular week restrict on abortion, would they be appropriate?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: I assist leaving the choice between a girl and her physician and leaving politicians completely out of it.
MAJOR GARRETT: Our polling additionally signifies that the economic system is essential to Arizona voters. And, on that situation, each the economic system usually, inflation particularly, in keeping with our knowledge, you path your opponent.
What's your strategy to inflation and the economic system in Arizona? And why is yours superior to that of your opponent?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: Nicely, first, let me say, I am the one candidate on this race who will not be a millionaire.
My husband and I raised our children by way of monetary ups and downs. And I do know the wrestle that lots of Arizonans are feeling proper now, having to stretch to place meals on the desk, interested by taking a second job, or not having the ability to pay the mortgage.
And so now we have a complete plan to deal with the rising prices that Arizonans are dealing with proper now that can put a reimbursement of their pockets. We minimize taxes on all types of on a regular basis objects like over-the-counter remedy, college provides, diapers, female hygiene merchandise. We offer a baby -- a state-level baby tax credit score and tax credit for individuals who need to return to work in higher-paying jobs to get profession and technical schooling.
Economists have checked out my affordability plan subsequent to Kari Lake's plan, and so they mentioned that my plan does put folks again to work and -- and assist them battle inflation and that Kari Lake's plan really will make inflation worse.
MAJOR GARRETT: Do you establish your self with the Biden financial administration -- financial plans and inflation-fighting plans?
And, in that case, would you advise the president to marketing campaign alongside your aspect in Arizona?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: I am centered on the race right here in Arizona and the wants of Arizonans. It is a race between myself and Kari Lake and -- and the -- the concepts that we're bringing to the desk.
MAJOR GARRETT: And one -- yet another time earlier than we allow you to go, as a result of I feel it's on the thoughts of Arizona voters, are you saying this morning that there isn't any circumstance which you could envision or would even attempt to negotiate wherein you and Kari Lake would seem at a debate collectively earlier than the election?
SECRETARY OF STATE KATIE HOBBS: At this level within the race, with 30 days to go, our schedule when it comes to -- of boards is just about set. And -- and I am actually pleased with the place we're within the plans now we have to proceed speaking on to the voters of Arizona.
MAJOR GARRETT: Katie Hobbs, secretary of state of Arizona, Democratic nominee for governor, thanks very a lot.
And we will probably be proper again with much more Face to Nation. We invite you to please stick with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MAJOR GARRETT: This is one thing of a professional tip.
If you cannot watch the complete Face the Nation, you may set your DVR, or we're obtainable on demand. Plus, you may watch us by way of our CBS or Paramount+ app. And we're replayed on our CBS Information Streaming Community at -- on Sundays at 1:30 p.m., 4:00 p.m., and 10:00 p.m.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MAJOR GARRETT: We will probably be proper again with some evaluation with our professional political panel.
We ask you, please stick with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MAJOR GARRETT: Welcome again to Face the Nation.
Greater than 21 months after the assault on the U.S. Capitol, a trial in opposition to defendants charged with seditious conspiracy started right here in Washington. New disclosures have been introduced to jurors in what prosecutors name some of the vital circumstances looking for accountability.
CBS Information congressional correspondent Scott MacFarlane has extra.
(Start VT)
SCOTT MACFARLANE (voice-over): Against the law not like any within the nation's historical past has led to a felony trial not like any in historical past.
Stewart Rhodes, army vet, Yale Regulation grad and former congressional staffer, is founding father of the far proper Oath Keepers group. Together with 4 co-defendants, he is standing trial for seditious conspiracy, accused of plotting to assault and block the peaceable switch of energy in America, and dealing with many years in jail if convicted.
Former Justice Division legal professional Michael Greenberger says, irrespective of the end result of the six-week-long trial, historical past will probably be made.
MICHAEL GREENBERGER (Former Justice Division Lawyer): This case is crucial seditious conspiracy case that was ever introduced.
SCOTT MACFARLANE: Within the trial's opening days, prosecutors argued the group was plotting simply days after the election. Jurors heard a clip of Rhodes from November 9, 2020, urging his group to be able to battle to create a pathway to maintain Trump in energy. STEWART RHODES (Founder and Chief, Oath Keepers): I am keen to sacrifice myself for that. Let the battle begin there, OK? That might give President Trump what he wants, frankly.
SCOTT MACFARLANE: Prosecutors confirmed an open letter written by Rhodes to then-President Trump encouraging Trump to invoke the Rebellion Act, to mobilize army veterans and militias, and order a brand new election the militia would assist administer.
They performed this interview clip of Rhodes for jurors:
STEWART RHODES: We now have males already stationed exterior D.C. as a nuclear possibility.
SCOTT MACFARLANE: Prosecutors argued the conspirators shared messages referencing civil warfare and predicting blood and violence, and so they mentioned the group staged weapons exterior the D.C. limits and helped the execution of a army stack formation to breach the Capitol.
For the Justice Division, which has gone to trial in opposition to roughly 20 January 6 defendants up to now and received convictions in each case earlier than a jury, the stakes listed here are larger. The Justice Division has restricted expertise going to trial on the cost of seditious conspiracy, however Greenberger says the trial itself may assist avert a future assault.
MICHAEL GREENBERGER: Bringing the trial exhibits all these folks on the market who suppose, oh, I'll go to Washington, I'll have an excellent time, it's going to be enjoyable, we are going to break into the Capitol, no, you are going to find yourself, win or lose, convicted or not convicted, devoting a big a part of your life and your fortune to defending your self.
(Finish VT)
SCOTT MACFARLANE: The trial resumes Tuesday, and the jurors must get comfy. This might final all the best way as much as Thanksgiving. Six to seven weeks is the estimate.
MAJOR GARRETT: Talking of getting comfy, now we have a pleasant, huge, full desk right here at Face the Nation.
I need to welcome everybody. CBS Information congressional correspondent Nikole Killion joins Scott MacFarlane. Additionally, now we have "New York Instances" chief White Home correspondent Peter Baker and "New Yorker" employees author Susan Glasser.
Susan and Peter, I need to additionally let , are co-authors of a brand new e-book on the Trump presidency known as "The Divider."
It is nice to have you ever all with us.
Susan and Peter, I need to begin with you.
To what diploma did what you simply noticed with Kari Lake, who many within the Trump world regard as a quick -- fast-rising star, reinforce what you write about in "The Divider"?
SUSAN GLASSER (Co-Writer, "The Divider: Trump within the White Home, 2017- 2021): Nicely, thanks very a lot, Main.
I used to be actually struck in your interview along with her that the Trumpist fashion in American politics, a la the well-known paranoid fashion in American politics, appears to be with us whether or not or not Trump himself is actually on the poll.
I feel that Kari Lake is an instance. To start with, she was rerunning a Trump play from the 2018 midterm elections, which didn't work, by the best way, wherein he falsely claimed that there was an invasion on the Southern border and truly despatched actual U.S. army troops to defeat this pretend invasion.
You might have her and different candidates now utilizing this language of invasion. I feel we should always level out, as a matter of reality, that we're not really experiencing an invasion, primary.
Quantity two, you simply -- you've got brazenness, I feel, as a superpower. And so you've got -- for Donald Trump, proper, he is keen to go wherever, to say something. And one factor he is discovered is that thousands and thousands will comply with him, for instance, within the election lies about 2020.
Curiously, in your interview, she didn't -- she was not keen to truly come out and say that Joe Biden was not the authentic...
MAJOR GARRETT: What Blake Masters mentioned...
SUSAN GLASSER: Completely, even...
MAJOR GARRETT: ... operating for the Senate as a Republican in Arizona.
SUSAN GLASSER: Despite the fact that they've all sought Trump's endorsement on the premise that they endorse his false claims. Very fascinating.
Does that imply that they cannot fairly absolutely imitate Donald Trump?
MAJOR GARRETT: Peter, and but -- I feel it is vital to place the "and but" -- Kari Lake is operating neck and neck in Arizona. Donald Trump obtained thousands and thousands extra votes when he ran for reelection in 2020 than 2016.
What does that inform you?
PETER BAKER (Co-Writer, "The Divider: Trump within the White Home, 2017- 2021"): Sure.
Nicely, we name the e-book "The Divider" not as a result of Trump created the divisions in our society, however he managed to -- he manifested them. He is the manifestation of them, and he found out learn how to exploit them politically.
And what we're now seeing is whether or not he can -- he can -- his inheritors, if you'll, can then translate that very same fashion, that very same method and strategy on the state stage in locations like Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and so forth.
And the reply proper now could be, they've an actual sturdy assist. It is a very evenly divided nation. Whenever you see these battleground states at 50/50, it tells you that the Trump a part of the nation isn't just a minority. It's a important a part of America and what -- now we have to confront that by some means, and relatively -- and it could't be dismissed.
That is one thing that is going to outlast Trump himself.
MAJOR GARRETT: Do you suppose that voters drawn to it are unsuitable to be drawn to it, or that that's an appropriate various in American politics, and that there's something Democrats are lacking about this explicit strategy?
PETER BAKER: Sure, there is a politics of grievance, proper?
What Trump efficiently tapped into is a way on the market of resentment amongst lots of Individuals, who really feel just like the elites in some vogue or one other have allow them to down, whether or not the elites be in Washington or of their state capitals.
It is also a dividing, in fact, alongside racial strains, alongside cultural strains, alongside ethnic and revenue strains. And it has been a profitable trademark on this period. And the query is, how do you tackle these issues in a means that does not exacerbate the divisions, as a substitute of bringing folks collectively?
MAJOR GARRETT: Nikole, you are on Capitol Hill, however you've got additionally been touring.
What have you ever been seeing in relation to the issues that Peter and Susan have been speaking about? I do know you have been lately in Georgia. There is a Trump-preferred candidate there, had a really irritating week. Catch us up.
NIKOLE KILLION: Nicely, that is proper.
And, when it comes to Herschel Walker, for now, the occasion appears to be standing with him. And so are voters. They're keen to look previous his faults. However I feel it is yet one more instance of many citizens being keen to simply accept something.
At one level, in our races, the difficulty of candidate high quality was one thing that meant so much. However now you've got candidates who deny elections, candidates who might have had previous transgressions, and but voters are keen to look previous that.
So, and...
MAJOR GARRETT: And, in -- and, within the case of the Georgia race, it is not only a transgression. It is one thing that basically disagrees with what his place is, if I perceive it appropriately, on entry to abortion.
NIKOLE KILLION: Nicely, completely.
That is any person who has been staunchly anti-abortion, would not assist abortion with exceptions, however but these reviews have began to come back out that, at one time limit, he paid for an abortion for a girlfriend, maybe inspired her to get an abortion on a second alternative.
And so that did not occur. This lady claims to be the mom of his baby. Once more, CBS Information has not been in a position to independently confirm a few of these claims. Nevertheless it does elevate questions on the place he comes down on this situation.
And this race is important. I imply, this race may actually determine management of the Senate. And so that is form of a make-or-break second for his marketing campaign.
MAJOR GARRETT: Scott, you watch the trials, the prosecutions ensuing from January 6, 2021, very intently, however you additionally maintain a really shut eye on the atmospherics across the Capitol and the midterm elections itself.
What's the sense of danger that members of Congress looking for reelection really feel they're underneath, both at house or within the Capitol itself?
SCOTT MACFARLANE: A considerably rising danger.
In only a 12 months's time, the Capitol Police have investigated 1000's of potential threats in opposition to members of Congress. After which the Justice Division reveals that it has a process pressure that can also be reviewing a whole bunch, if not 1000's, of potential threats.
And the political impression of this apart -- and there could also be a big political impression to election denialism and questioning the integrity of elections -- let's discuss in regards to the blocking and tackling of administering elections.
It places that in danger as effectively. You chronicle this effectively in your e-book. However I'll add, I talked to the elections administrator in Lansing, Michigan, Ingham County, Michigan, a purple county in Michigan, involved about threats in opposition to her ballot employees, involved about recruiting ballot employees, discovering folks to come back in and need a piece of that.
And we all know that among the directors of elections nationwide try to recruit legislation college students, American Bar Affiliation-related volunteers, any person to come back man the polls on this uniquely poisonous surroundings.
MAJOR GARRETT: Poisonous surroundings, Susan, does that really feel like one thing that will probably be inevitable, not solely on this midterm election?
It is not going to go away. Clearly, we all know that. Will this toxicity, ought to we assume it is going to proceed all the best way as much as 2024, presumably past?
SUSAN GLASSER: Sure, I feel it is not only a matter of rhetoric, proper?
It is structural modifications which might be being made in our politics. You might have Trump, who's reoriented the Republican Occasion and radicalized it. "The Washington Submit" reported this week that 299 nominees, Republican nominees for Home, Senate and main statewide posts, are election deniers, together with in -- some will probably be in key races the place they're figuring out the counting and the certification of votes going ahead.
And, by the best way, lots of these Republican nominees are in protected Republican seats, so that they're now assured to have basically a wave of Trumpian shock troops who've made election denialism a basis of the Republican -- Republican Occasion's new ideology.
So, it is not only a matter of rhetoric. I feel we're altering the construction of American politics in methods which might be designed to exacerbate this ongoing disaster in American democracy.
MAJOR GARRETT: Nikole, it is fairly clear, in case you have a look at the spending patterns in among the Senate races, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, dramatic examples of this.
On the Republican aspect, greater than half of the cash spent on TV promoting is about crime. To what diploma do you see that taking part in as a possible -- probably pivotal situation within the midterms?
NIKOLE KILLION: Nicely, it actually is a Republican speaking level and a difficulty that they need to put entrance and middle.
I used to be simply in Wisconsin over the weekend and talked to Senator Johnson, who's going for his third time period. And he did say that he feels that that ought to be a defining situation on this election.
On the flip aspect, although, when it comes to his opponent, he has tried to color him as somebody who's mushy on crime. However when it comes to Mandela Barnes, his strategy has actually been making this abortion rights situation, which now we have seen Democrats again and again in lots of the Senate races actually tried to convey that to the fore.
So, once more, form of, as Anthony identified earlier, I feel it is the -- every occasion has a distinct narrative, and it is a matter of which one goes to rise to the highest.
MAJOR GARRETT: Peter, in your e-book with Susan, do you deduce something that you just suppose is of lasting and constructive worth from the Trump 12 months -- years?
(LAUGHTER)
PETER BAKER: Nicely, look, I feel it is bolstered this dialog about what our democracy is and ought to be, proper?
And it is pressured us to have a look at the construction, as Susan mentioned, of our politics and of our system. However I feel that what the priority is, we do not know the place it is going to lead us. Can we reaffirm our dedication to this technique that we created 240-some years in the past, or are we going to seek out ourselves misplaced?
And I feel that that is the large query heading into 2024.
MAJOR GARRETT: I imply, if the previous president have been sitting right here, he would say: I improved the economic system. I made American international coverage stronger.
PETER BAKER: Sure.
MAJOR GARRETT: Would you say any of that has a validity, primarily based on all of the analysis that went into the e-book?
PETER BAKER: There are lots of voters on the market who say, look, I like Donald Trump as a result of I favored among the issues he completed. I did like tax cuts, or a conservative Supreme Court docket justice, or regulation cuts or what have you ever.
However the query that's raised, at the very least actually in our e-book, goes past a selected Republican, Democrat, liberal, conservative ideological - - ideological battle. It goes to the bigger questions of what we need to be as a rustic.
And I feel that is what makes Trump distinctive. He isn't like different Republicans or Democrats. It is not about coverage. It is not about what our well being care ought to be or tax cuts. It is about whether or not you consider within the system that we created.
MAJOR GARRETT: It's a time for uniqueness and bigger questions, to make sure.
Peter Baker, Susan Glasser, Nikole Killion, Scott MacFarlane, thanks so very a lot.
We will probably be proper again.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MAJOR GARRETT: As Russia's army suffers extra setbacks in its invasion of Ukraine, President Biden warned final week that Russian President Vladimir Putin is -- quote -- "not joking" -- unquote -- when he talks about utilizing nuclear weapons, saying we face a prospect of nuclear Armageddon not like something now we have seen because the peak of the Chilly Conflict.
For extra on what's occurring on the bottom in Ukraine, CBS Information senior international correspondent Charlie D'Agata has extra.
(Start VT)
CHARLIE D'AGATA (voice-over): In a severe escalation to the warfare right here, safety cameras captured the second an enormous explosion tore by way of the Crimean bridge on Saturday morning. Russian officers blamed the explosion on a truck bomb, calling it an act of terror.
It comes on the again of a sequence of setbacks on the battlefields. Ukrainian forces have been clawing again territory on a number of fronts, within the south, towards Kherson, and east within the Donbass area, the place we traveled to the liberated metropolis of Lyman.
On the best way, we spoke with Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, who took half within the battle.
Which weapons have been vital on this battle?
(COLONEL SERHIY CHEREVATY SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
CHARLIE D'AGATA: "Artillery was crucial," he mentioned, "American weapons and, in fact, the HIMARS," the Excessive Mobility Artillery Rocket Techniques that may strike targets deep behind enemy strains.
(GUNSHOTS)
CHARLIE D'AGATA: However each inch of floor retaken within the very territory President Putin has illegally annexed dangers retaliation and deepens the specter of a nuclear response.
And in an interview with the BBC, President Zelenskyy has warned, Russia could also be preparing.
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY (Ukrainian President): They start to organize their society. That may be very harmful.
CHARLIE D'AGATA: As soon as once more this week, the Russian army confirmed a reckless disregard for human life.
(MAN SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
CHARLIE D'AGATA: In a single day, rockets rained down on a residential neighborhood in Zaporizhzhia, leveling condo blocks, killing extra civilians, the newest in a sequence of strikes.
Earlier this week, on a grand avenue in Zaporizhzhia, we discovered firefighters nonetheless dousing a mountain of twisted steel and concrete.
A number of hours after the rocket assault, and the constructing continues to be smoldering. That is not a rescue operation. And that is an upmarket neighborhood within the middle of city. The extra Russian troops lose in opposition to Ukrainian troopers, the extra they retaliate in opposition to civilians.
(Finish VT)
CHARLIE D'AGATA: Renewed shelling on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy plant has minimize the primary energy strains there.
Engineers have needed to depend on emergency diesel mills. President Putin has signed a decree declaring that it is now formally underneath Russian possession -- Main.
MAJOR GARRETT: Charlie, thanks.
We will probably be again in a second.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MAJOR GARRETT: We flip now to America's financial challenges.
And to assist us out, I need to usher in Mohamed El-Erian. He's the chief financial adviser at monetary providers firm Allianz. He's additionally president of Queens Faculty in Cambridge. He is adequate to hitch us this morning from New York.
So, this week was a really risky week within the U.S. inventory markets. Volatility has been ever-present, I might say, throughout this calendar 12 months, however this week appeared actually risky.
For my viewers, for our viewers, break it down. What is going on on? What's the supply, in case you can establish it, of that volatility?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN (Chief Financial Adviser, Allianz): So, the primary supply of this volatility is altering perceptions of the Federal Reserve.
We're on this unimaginable state of affairs, Main, the place excellent news for the economic system is unhealthy information for the markets. And that is as a result of the markets are nervous that the Federal Reserve will tip us into recession by overreacting to sturdy financial information.
MAJOR GARRETT: Each White Home I've ever lined -- and it has been a couple of or two -- has mentioned, , the market is not the economic system. The economic system is the economic system. And what markets do, markets are going to do.
Even so, volatility impacts folks's retirement, their planning and their sense of their medium- and long-term futures. How ought to folks be taking a look at that? And once they hear the president, as he did on Friday, speak about navigating this transition, what does that imply?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So, first, there's volatility, and there is unsettling volatility, volatility, when issues go up and down and, on the entire, you are higher off over time.
However that is not what we have had this 12 months. We have had unsettling volatility, as a result of we have had the inventory market down by something from 20 to 30 %. We have had bonds, that are imagined to safeguard your funding, additionally down by about 15 %.
So, there's been nowhere to cover. That is why folks really feel insecure. That is why they have a look at their retirement plans with concern.
The president is true. We're at present on what I consider as a bumpy journey to a greater vacation spot, and we have to navigate each the journey and prepare for the vacation spot. There's a risk that the Federal Reserve makes one other mistake and that that bumpy journey really modifications the vacation spot. That is why the markets are on edge.
MAJOR GARRETT: Is it your perspective that the Federal Reserve has already made a sequence of errors, both not appearing quick sufficient or overreacting?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So it is made two huge errors that I feel are going to go down within the historical past books.
One is mischaracterizing inflation as transitory. By that, they meant it's non permanent, it is reversible, don't fret about it. That was mistake primary. After which, mistake quantity two, once they lastly acknowledged that inflation was persistent and excessive, they did not act. They did not act in a significant means.
And, in consequence, we danger mistake quantity three, which is, by not easing the foot off the accelerator final 12 months, they're slamming on the brakes this 12 months, which can tip us into recession.
So, sure, sadly, this may go down as an enormous coverage error by the Federal Reserve.
MAJOR GARRETT: Persevering with your metaphor, slamming on the brakes, does that imply it's inconceivable to realize the both literal or legendary mushy touchdown?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: Even Chair Powell has gone from in search of a mushy touchdown, to a softish touchdown, to now speaking about ache.
And that's the -- the issue. That's the price of a Federal Reserve being late. Not solely does it have to beat inflation, but it surely has to revive its credibility. So, sure, I worry that we danger a really excessive likelihood of a harmful recession that was completely avoidable, Main.
MAJOR GARRETT: Washington, D.C. is a hyperpolitical city, not a information bulletin. So it tends to soak up data internationally, generally in private methods.
So there's lots of chatter this week that when OPEC Plus determined and introduced it was reducing manufacturing, that that was in opposition to President Biden particularly. Do you agree with that? Or do you suppose it is a broader OPEC Plus declaration in regards to the route of the worldwide economic system?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So, first, it does harm the U.S., and we have seen oil costs go up above $90 a barrel.
What does that imply? It implies that inflation, which has been coming down, now dangers going up once more. So, that -- that's not good for us. Nonetheless, that it got here as a shock, it did not come as a shock to me.
OPEC is trying to defend oil costs within the context of declining international demand. All three main areas on the planet, China, Europe, and the U.S., are slowing a lot sooner, which suggests much less demand for oil. So, what does OPEC do? They reduce provide.
So, this should not have come as an enormous shock. That is what they do. That is the historical past. Nevertheless it's actually not excellent news for the U.S. economic system.
MAJOR GARRETT: Tying this stuff collectively, do you suppose larger gasoline costs inevitably imply larger inflation, making all of the issues we have mentioned extra sophisticated?
And do you've got a Client Value Index prediction for the close to future?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So, the subsequent measure comes out in just a few days. That is going to be for September. Headline inflation will in all probability come all the way down to about 8 %.
However core inflation, what measures the drivers of inflation and the way broad they're, continues to be going up. So we nonetheless have an inflation situation. Inflation will come down, Main. The query is, does it come down with a slowdown within the economic system or a serious recession? That's the query that is being debated proper now.
It is not whether or not we'll have inflation coming down. We'll. Nevertheless it's the price of that inflation coming down.
MAJOR GARRETT: Is the roles report this week a silver lining in all of this in any other case gloomy evaluation?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: It actually is.
We created 260,000 -- 263,000 jobs. That is so much for this stage. We additionally lowered the unemployment fee to three.5 %. That is actually low. There was one, one concern, which is that labor pressure participation, how many individuals are within the labor pressure, got here down. And that is not excellent news. And it talks to the significance of specializing in human capital.
MAJOR GARRETT: One last item earlier than I allow you to go. We now have about 30 seconds.
About two or three months in the past, it was widespread for folks on the Net to see stagflation headlines. We're not in a stagflation state of affairs.
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: We're. Progress is coming down. Inflation continues to be excessive. Sadly, it is not time to remove that time period but.
MAJOR GARRETT: Superb.
Mohamed El-Erian, we thanks a lot in your time.
And we will probably be proper again.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MAJOR GARRETT: Nicely, that's it for us as we speak. We need to thanks for watching.
Margaret will probably be again subsequent week.
For Face the Nation, I am Main Garrett.