The next is a transcript of an interview with Raphael Bostic, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta, that aired Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, on "Face the Nation."
MARGARET BRENNAN: That is Mark Strassmann reporting from Atlanta. And we flip now to the president of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic. Good morning to you, sir. It is good to have you ever again. I wish to get your perspective. We all know the inventory market isn't the financial system, however it's a ahead trying indicator and it is exhibiting some concern proper now. Around the globe, central banks try to get management of inflation. The Fed has already raised charges 5 instances this yr. Why is not inflation coming down?
BOSTIC: Properly, to begin with, good morning, Margaret. It is actually good to see you. And, , inflation is excessive. It is too excessive. And we actually must do all that we are able to to make it come down. And once we take into consideration its supply, it is as a result of we've got very excessive demand. We've got not sufficient provide. And so long as you've gotten that hole, costs are going to be feeling upward stress. So we have got to slender that hole. And what we have been hoping would occur is that we might see some motion on the provision facet, to maneuver the provision up in order that there wasn't a lot of of an public sale on items which are within the market. However that hasn't occurred. And that basically has meant that we've got needed to flip to our insurance policies to attempt to take demand down and cut back this stage. I believe numerous what you noticed on the- within the lead In piece right here is that that demand is beginning to shrink and in the end that can begin to pay dividends once we take into consideration inflation ranges.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So these larger rates of interest for companies, , it makes it costlier for them to get loans for customers. It makes them costlier, as we have been speaking about, to get mortgages, bank card debt, loans. That is the way it kind of cools issues off just a little bit. We have already had two again to again quarters of destructive GDP progress, which might put us in that class of recession. How vital of a pullback are you anticipating right here?
BOSTIC: Properly, to begin with, I believe that the GDP quantity is a technique to consider the financial efficiency, however many others would recommend that the financial system has numerous constructive momentum. We're nonetheless creating numerous jobs on a month-to-month foundation. And so I really suppose that there's some potential for the financial system to soak up our actions and gradual in a- in a comparatively orderly method. However we have to have decelerate. There isn't any query about that. However I do suppose that we will do all that we are able to on the Federal Reserve to keep away from deep, deep ache. And I believe there are some eventualities the place that is more likely to occur.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Deep, deep ache or you could keep away from the deep, deep ache?
BOSTIC: Oh, that we are able to keep away from the ache, okay, thanks.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That is all proper. Alan Blinder, the previous vice chair of the Federal Reserve, wrote a bit in The Journal this week, and he stated the probabilities of a delicate touchdown based mostly on historical past are effectively beneath 50%, however above zero. What are the percentages right here that it is a delicate touchdown?
BOSTIC: Properly, I am not an odd individual. And individuals who know me know I do not wish to gamble as a result of I hate to lose cash. However I'll inform you, that is one thing that's going to be arduous. It is not going to be simple. There'll possible be some job losses. However I believe for those who look over the historic historical past right here and our financial experiences, there is a actually good likelihood that if we've got job losses, it is going to be smaller than what we have seen in different conditions. And that is what I am banking on. You understand, I discuss to enterprise leaders and folks in communities throughout the southeast. They're involved, however they do nonetheless really feel that there is a method to get to 2% when it comes to inflation that can nonetheless depart them in an excellent place. And I depart our financial system in a spot the place it's poised to develop and be resilient.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So you are still sticking with 2%?
BOSTIC: That is our goal. We're- we have not modified my view. I have not modified my view on that. And I'll maintain working to be sure that inflation begins to maneuver in that route as quickly as attainable.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So initially of June, Jamie Dimon, who's the CEO of JPMorgan, predicted an financial hurricane. This week, he was earlier than Congress and he stated among the challenges dealing with the US are persistent inflation shocks from Russia's battle in Ukraine and rising oil costs. You may't management a few of these issues. Are we within the eye of the storm? Is that this the hurricane?
BOSTIC: So I do not know if it is a hurricane. Look, there are many issues which have occurred during the last a number of months that basically have been surprising and have made our job harder. You understand, the battle in Ukraine undoubtedly disrupted provide chains and I believe set us again when it comes to our restoration by many months. And in order that's- that is actual. However there are additionally some constructive issues occurring. Now, simply final week, we averted the rail strike. I believe that was a really constructive factor. And we're nonetheless listening to, as I discuss to companies, that they don't seem to be anticipating that they will have to put off individuals very quickly. And so we've got momentum and we must always not lose sight of that as we begin to see demand come down and as- get inflation beneath management.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So inform me about that, since you have a look at the American south, we simply did this CBS Information polling to get political opinions. And we're seeing individuals within the state of Georgia have a rosier view of the financial system than individuals nationwide. So 55% of Georgia voters describe the financial system to us pretty much as good. Nationwide, solely 28% say that. In order that's notion. What's actuality and what's occurring within the South that is not mirrored in the remainder of the nation?
BOSTIC: Properly, I can not communicate for the remainder of the nation. However I'll inform you, as for right here in Atlanta, there may be nonetheless appreciable job progress. Companies are saying that they're seeing numerous financial potential and that's shaping, I imagine, the willingness to take a position sooner or later. My expectation is that as we transfer alongside and we begin to get inflation extra beneath management, that viewpoint will turn into extra generalized throughout the nation and folks will be capable of look over longer horizons and see that there's potential on the market. So, , I perceive we have got numerous uncertainty now. The state of affairs in Russia that you just spent the primary a part of this present on has bought everybody on edge. However we do know that some bottlenecks are beginning to ease. And I am hopeful that over the subsequent a number of months, we'll begin to see that hole between the excessive demand and that decrease provide slender considerably, which is able to then translate into inflation transferring nearer to our goal.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You have got job progress, you stated, within the South. Do you've gotten sufficient employees?
BOSTIC: Properly, we do have the problem of a good labor drive. Everybody I talked to says, look, it's- it is more durable to seek out employees than it has, than it was two years in the past. However our--
MARGARET BRENNAN: Is an answer immigration?
BOSTIC: Properly, immigration may contribute to that. However what I might say is our enterprise leaders have stated it is not as arduous immediately because it was a month in the past. So they're beginning to see these challenges ease up. However look, we've got a- we've got numerous complexity in our labor market. We all know inflation is down. We all know that households have completed numerous rethinking about whether or not they want two earners or whether or not they need to maintain somebody at dwelling and never. We've got challenges when it comes to childcare. There's numerous churn in our labor markets that we're going to have to observe. And, , I am grateful, my staff. We have been doing numerous good analysis on this and we have recognized some some locations to deal with that can give us an excellent clue as to the extent to which labor markets are easing.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We'll be looking ahead to that. Thanks to your time immediately. We'll be again in a second.