If North Korea was searching for one other excuse to forge forward with its nuclear weapons program, it simply discovered one in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
That one of many only a few international locations to have voluntarily given up a nuclear arsenal is now below assault from the identical nation it gave its warheads to is not going to be misplaced on Pyongyang.
Actually, analysts say, Moscow's actions have gifted the reclusive Asian nation a "good storm" of situations below which to ramp its program up.
Not solely will North Korea use Ukraine's plight to bolster its narrative that it wants nukes to ensure its survival, however chief Kim Jong-un could discover that, with all eyes on the warfare in Europe, he can get away with greater than ever.
Divided over Ukraine, the worldwide group will seemingly have little urge for food for sanctions on the hermit kingdom; certainly, even unified condemnation of a current North Korean ICBM take a look at stays elusive.
What's extra, the boycott of Russian oil and fuel might even open the door to cut-price vitality offers between Pyongyang and Moscow - ideological allies whose friendship harks again to the Korean warfare of the Fifties.
Within the worst-case state of affairs, specialists even wonder if that is the beginning of a as soon as unthinkable chain of occasions that would finish with a return to inter-Korean battle, even perhaps with the North invading the South, although most see this as extremely unlikely.
As professor Andrei Lankov of Kookmin College places it, the lesson North Korea has realized from Russia's warfare in Ukraine, is straightforward: "By no means, ever give up your nuclear weapons."
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A nuclear lesson, from Ukraine to Saddam and Gaddafi
Moscow's invasion of its neighbour has bolstered a message that has been taking part in on Pyongyang's thoughts for many years, Lankov mentioned.
When Ukraine was a part of the USSR, it hosted hundreds of nuclear warheads.
It voluntarily handed these over to Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, as a part of a 1994 take care of america, United Kingdom and Russia which might assure Ukraine's safety, a deal often known as the Budapest Memorandum.
Ukraine now finds itself below brutal assault from the exact same nation that signed the deal to guard its sovereignty, one which now repeatedly refers to its nuclear arsenal to warn the West off intervention.
Would Moscow have invaded if Ukraine had stored its warheads?
Most specialists, and more than likely Pyongyang too, assume not.
"Now (the North Koreans) have gotten one more affirmation (of this lesson) after Iraq, after Libya," Lankov mentioned.
Pyongyang recurrently makes use of the experiences of Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gaddafi, the previous leaders of Iraq and Libya, to justify its nuclear program, each to its personal individuals and the world.
Each strongmen leaders misplaced their grips on energy and, in the end their very own lives, after their very own nuclear ambitions got here grinding to a halt.
The Russian invasion will bolster that narrative, however in doing so it might even have a "very adverse affect" on the thoughts of North Korea's personal strongman chief, in line with Lee Sang-hyun, president and senior analysis fellow of the Sejong Institute.
He says Kim is prone to reply in just one means: by turning into "much more obsessed along with his nuclear weapons and missile capabilities."
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Pyongyang's carte blanche
Even earlier than the invasion, North Korea had proven indicators of ramping up its nuclear ambitions.
On Saturday, it held its 14th missile launch of the 12 months, up from simply 4 assessments in 2020 and eight in 2021.
One of many missiles examined this 12 months was believed to be an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) that's assumed able to hitting the mainland US.
That was the primary ICBM take a look at since 2017 and was extensively seen as a harbinger of assessments to come back.
Kim made clear his intention to go full velocity forward along with his nuclear program at a navy parade on April 25.
And business satellite tv for pc photographs counsel Pyongyang is attempting to revive entry to its Punggye-ri underground testing website, in line with South Korean officers and think-tanks.
US officers inform CNN North Korea may very well be able to resume nuclear testing later this month.
Towards this background the Russian invasion, and the worldwide sanctions that adopted, have created a "good storm" of situations for Pyongyang to function in, analysts say.
"There are some attention-grabbing, maybe unintended penalties for the Western response towards Russia specifically, which is that a Russia that has been utterly remoted from the worldwide financial system and put below great sanctions stress. I feel it has only a few incentives to implement sanctions towards North Korea," mentioned Ankit Panda, a senior fellow within the Nuclear Coverage Program on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace.
A transparent break up amongst United Nations Safety Council everlasting members, Russia and China on one aspect, the UK, US and France on the opposite, means any unified resolution to punish North Korea is inconceivable.
"It is fairly clear that China and Russia will block further sanctions and albeit it is not fairly clear, what else are you able to presumably sanction," Lankov mentioned.
Even a seventh nuclear take a look at could not provoke the standard adverse response from Beijing, "China just isn't going to be comfortable sufficient about nuclear assessments, however they are going to swallow it," Lankov mentioned.
Cashing in with an previous pal
If something, North Korea could even profit financially as different international locations boycott Russian oil and fuel.
The cash-strapped nation can be very happy to take up a number of the slack, probably at a reduction, and take care of a Russia now not constrained by US-led sanctions towards the North.
"I feel that Russia goes to supply extra financial help and vitality help to North Korea," mentioned Ramon Pacheco Pardo, the KF-VUB Korea chair on the Institute for European Research of Vrije Universiteit Brussel.
"Oil and fuel, definitely however it might additionally embrace meals... fertilisers, it may very well be all kinds of financial support North Korea desires."
That Pyongyang would aspect with Moscow in a brand new world order just isn't a shock.
Relations between the 2 international locations have been cast by the Korean Struggle of 1950-1953, they usually shared a communist ideology for many years.
The previous Soviet Union was a serious benefactor to North Korea, financially propping the Kim regime up.
Whereas that process has now transferred to China, the return of Russia to strongman rule below President Vladimir Putin has put a brand new shine on the connection.
"(Pyongyang) have been kind of disgusted concerning the democratic and liberal or semi-democratic, semi-liberal Russia which used to exist, they usually mainly greeted Vladimir Putin as a frontrunner who was driving the nation into the fitting path," Lankov mentioned.
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Kim's fleeting dance with the US, holding three conferences with former President Donald Trump that in the end yielded little, solely reminded him his extra pure and profitable allegiances stay with China and Russia.
Pyongyang for its half has made clear the place it locations the blame for the warfare in Ukraine.
"The basis explanation for the Ukraine disaster lies completely within the hegemonic coverage of the US and the West which indulge themselves in high-handedness and arbitrariness in the direction of different international locations," its International Ministry mentioned.
Would North Korea invade the South?
Since Russia's invasion, North Korea's rhetoric in the direction of South Korea has modified.
Final month Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned that if South Korea was to confront the North militarily its military would "face a depressing destiny little in need of complete destruction and smash."
Threatening language from Pyongyang is nothing new, a US official as soon as described being insulted publicly by North Korea as like a "badge of honour."
What's new is that because the invasion, specialists like Lankov have been asking whether or not North Korea would think about an invasion of the South once more, greater than seven a long time after its invasion in 1950 sparked the Korean Struggle.
That query has for years been dismissed out of hand.
Most specialists nonetheless see the adjustments as negligible, however the reality it's even being mentioned is noteworthy.
"North Koreans are in all probability dreaming once more about one thing that (they) used to take severely, however in current a long time practically forgot. That's conquest of the South," Lankov mentioned.
For now, the concept appears fanciful. However the future is one other matter.
"Possibly, simply possibly, the American President of the 12 months 2045 or 2055 is not going to threat San Francisco to be able to save Seoul," Lankov mentioned.
"(By then) North Koreans might use ICBMs, possibly nuclear armed submarines to (terrify) Individuals, to blackmail Individuals out of the battle."