Washington — Western officers are warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin may resort to more and more brutal and excessive techniques in Ukraine as Russian forces wrestle to realize their army goals and questions come up about Putin's grip on energy.
A senior U.S. protection official informed reporters on Wednesday that Russian forces advancing towards Kyiv "look like stalled" and had been struggling general from "logistical and sustainment issues in addition to integration issues."
"The Russians will be taught from these missteps and attempt to overcome them," the official mentioned.
President Biden mentioned Wednesday that the Russian chief was "remoted from the world greater than ever," as a raft of sanctions destabilizes the Russian economic system and Moscow's invasion is met with near-global condemnation.
Observers of the Kremlin have famous that Putin, a former intelligence officer beforehand identified for his restraint, has appeared uncharacteristically agitated, delivering meandering screeds and publicly lashing out at his aides.
"He was at all times chilly, calculating and ruthless. You recognize, a KGB man by and thru," mentioned Mike Vickers, a former undersecretary of protection for intelligence, particular operations officer and CIA officer who performed an instrumental half in arming the Afghan insurgency in the course of the Soviet-Afghan Conflict within the Eighties. "However he is now extra emotional, extra erratic, extra rambling, I believe extra reckless, maybe from rising self-isolation and confidence in himself."
"This seems to be like a significant strategic blunder that the potential losses manner outweigh the positive factors," Vickers added throughout a current episode of CBS Information' "Intelligence Issues" podcast. "And so I believe in that sense, he actually is a distinct man now, and due to this fact doubtlessly extra harmful."
Present and former officers and other people briefed on U.S. intelligence say businesses have assessed that Putin is an skilled, calculating and rational actor with a definite worldview, however who has in recent times — and particularly in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic — change into extra remoted and unpredictable, counting on a dwindling circle of advisers and aides.
Sources who spoke with CBS Information weren't conscious of credible info that Putin, other than being practically 70 years outdated, is bodily ailing or affected by neurological points that would depart him indifferent from actuality.
U.S. policymakers are asking for recent insights into his pondering from the CIA and different businesses, the place management analysts are tasked full-time with profiling world leaders like Putin and different decision-makers in international governments. Their roles contain combining and analyzing several types of collected intelligence — info obtained from human sources, intercepted communications, and by way of different means — to find out leaders' motivations and their potential vulnerabilities.
Some Western officers have argued that Putin, whereas much less restrained, has for many years made no secret of his agenda, motivations or frustrations.
"I believe there's been a logical, methodical plan that goes again a really good distance, no less than to 2007 when he put the world, and positively Europe, on discover that Moscow wouldn't settle for the additional growth of NATO," Fiona Hill, a longtime Russia knowledgeable and former Nationwide Safety Council official, lately informed Politico Journal.
Former Polish International Minister Radek Sikorski, who now serves as a member of the European Parliament, in contrast the present state of affairs to the years main as much as World Conflict II.
"An identical to the Nineteen Thirties ... the chief of a significant nation-state was telling us publicly that he has a plan of conquest. And our mistake was to suppose, 'That is too nuts; he cannot probably imply it.' Each of them did imply it," Sikorski informed CBS Information in a current interview.
"[Putin] desires to undo the collapse of the Soviet Union, and he is been clear about that," he added.
The French information company AFP quoted an nameless official in French President Emmanuel Macron's workplace as saying that Putin is now "extra inflexible and remoted" than he has been previously.
"The Putin that [Macron] met on the Kremlin was not the identical that he had seen in December 2019," the official mentioned, referring to Macron's February assembly with Putin on the Kremlin.
Issues that Russia could quickly make use of prohibited weapons akin to cluster munitions or thermobaric "vacuum" bombs have risen as unverified movies flow into on social media of their positioning on Ukrainian soil.
The Worldwide Legal Courtroom mentioned Wednesday it will open an investigation into doable warfare crimes and crimes towards humanity dedicated in Ukraine, after 38 nations signed onto a referral for an expedited inquiry.
Talking in Vienna, Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Group for Safety and Co-operation in Europe, mentioned in a speech on Thursday that the U.S. had credible info the Russians had been maintaining lists of Ukrainians to be killed or despatched to camps following a army occupation.
"Given what we've seen in previous Russian operations, we anticipate that the Russian Federation will attempt to pressure the inhabitants to cooperate by intimidation, abuse, and repression—together with by focused killings, kidnappings, detentions, and bodily abuse," he mentioned.
Margaret Brennan and Eleanor Watson contributed to this report.