”Survey says” looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations, noting that these grades are best seen as a mix of art and data.
Buzz: California’s consumer confidence has jumped by almost a third since Joe Biden was elected president — but the future is cloudy.
Source: My trusty spreadsheet’s review of November’s consumer confidence indexes, created from polling done for the Conference Board.
The trend
California’s gain of 32% in its optimism index in the 12 months since Election Day 2020 is in line with a national upswing as the U.S. index rose 18% in the same period.
Look, politicians have far less impact on the economy than everybody thinks. And one of the past year’s biggest changes has been the reduction in the pandemic’s damage to health and wealth.
Still, the buck stops with leadership, and skittish shoppers often seek change at the ballot box. So it’s curious to see how confidence expressed through an index like this one has morphed since Biden quashed Donald Trump’s re-election bid.
Let’s look at the eight states the Conference Board’s study breaks out and their political leanings …
1. Illinois: Overall confidence index is up 49% in a year. Biden won with 58% of the vote.
2. New York: Up 46%. Biden, with 61%.
3. Pennsylvania: Up 33%. Biden, with 50.1%.
4. California: Up 32%. Biden, with 64%.
5. Ohio: Up 25%. Trump, with 53%.
6. Michigan: Up 13%. Biden, with 51%.
7. Florida: Up 8%. Trump, with 51%.
8. Texas: Up 6%. Trump, with 52%.
Caveat
Much of the past year’s increased optimism as shown by this polling can be tied to improved views about current conditions. Let’s remember a year ago when the economy — and the nation’s wellness — was pummeled by an autumn surge in coronavirus.
Nationally, the index’s measurement of the present economy is up 35% in a year. It’s a period where the broadest measure of business output — gross domestic product — jumped a swift 6.7% in the 12 months ended in June. State indexes of current conditions run largely in tandem with the size of their respective business rebounds …
1. Illinois: Current conditions index up 77% in the year. Statewide GDP grew 6.8%.
2. California: Up 74%. GDP up 8.1%.
3. New York: Up 65%. GDP up 8.1%.
4. Pennsylvania: Up 50%. GDP up 5.9%.
5. Michigan: Up 41%. GDP up 8.3%.
6. Florida: Up 32%. GDP up 6.7%.
7. Texas: Up 22%. GDP up 6.4%.
8. Ohio: Up 9%. GDP up 5.2%.
Nationally, shoppers had mixed opinions of key markers of today’s economy.
While the number of those polled saying jobs were “plentiful” jumped to 58% vs. 26% a year ago, “better” business conditions slipped to 17% vs. 18.8% in November 2020.
Bottom Line
The economy and politics is a decidedly what-have-you-done-for-me-lately game.
Biden should worry about the anxieties revealed by this study, especially within these eight states where unemployment runs at or above the nation’s 4.6% rate for October.
Ponder the slice of the confidence indexes that tracks expectations for economic progress. The future looks murky — again with a somewhat political divide …
1. Ohio: Expectations jumped 53% in a year. Note this state also had the worst view of today’s economy — and its October unemployment rate was 5.1%, that’s only No. 30 among the states.
2. New York: Expectations up 33%. Unemployment? 6.9%, fourth-worst.
3. Illinois: Up 27%. Unemployment? 6%, tied for No. 40.
4. Pennsylvania: Up 19%. Unemployment? 6%, tied for No. 40.
5. California: Up 5%. Unemployment? 7.3%, tied for worst.
6. Michigan: Expectations fell 4%. Unemployment? 6.1%, tied for No. 42.
7. Texas: Down 7%. Unemployment? 5.4%, tied for No. 34.
8. Florida: Down 11% to a 15-month low. Unemployment? 4.6%, tied for No. 27.
Nationally, the expectation benchmark was up just 4%. And when U.S. shoppers were asked about what may happen six months from now, they had less hope for better business conditions (24.1% from 26.5% in November 2020) and more jobs (22.1% vs. 25%).
Plus, when it came to big purchases, dreams were cut for buying a home (4.8% vs. 7.5%) and a vehicle (7.8% vs. 11.1%) but upped major appliances (45.8% vs. 44%).
And caution brews about where some key financial yardsticks will be 12 months from now. By the way, politically speaking, that’s November 2022 — when mid-term elections are held that will challenge the Democrats’ control of Congress …
Inflation? Shoppers now expect 7.6% rate next year vs. 5.7% forecast in November 2020.
Interest rates higher? 62.5% said “yes” vs. 45% a year ago.
Stocks higher? 33.2% said “yes” vs. 34.4% a year ago.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com